Is Star Trek 4 doomed to fail at the box office?

It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Star Trek 4.

A Star Trek 4 movie was announced before the cast was notified, and since that time, the actors have remained firmly in the dark, with most of them saying they don’t know what’s going on. While they all seem to be onboard for the next installment in J.J. Abrams’ Kelvin timeline Star Trek, there’s little information getting through to them or the rest of the waiting universe. This doesn’t spell good things for a potential December 2023 release, especially since there hasn’t been any official word on the script, athough Chris Pine might know a little something about that. (See link below.)

Whatculture’s recent article, 10 Upcoming Movies that Are Doomed to Fail, includes the upcoming Matt Shakman-directed film in its list, citing the problems with notifying the cast before the movie was announced, something which allowed the cast members to demand higher salaries. Variety reported that Chris Pine would earn $13 million for repising his role as Captain James T. Kirk.

Star Trek 4 may have more issues than just the casts’ salaries.

So many stops and starts don’t look good for the movie. Add to that the obviously astronomical budget which is sure to be higher than Star Trek: Beyond’s $185 million, and the film is already off to a rocky start. Throw in Star Trek: Beyond’s underperformance at the box office, which Forbes writer, Scott Mendelson attributed to the release date of the movie, and there is a cause for concern. And the budget may very well be one thing that has kept the movie on hold for as long as it’s been. (Star Trek: Beyond released in 2016.)

Whatculture also mentioned that Chris Pine has never proved to be a box office draw when leading a movie, offering Jack Ryan and The Finest Hours as examples, but the Star Trek audience doesn’t show up just for one character so it’s doubtful that the powers-that-be are relying on him and him alone for the box office draw.

While there is yet to be a firm foundation established, it’s entirely possible the long wait will turn out to be a good thing. It’s better to take the time to get it right than to rush a script through. There are many fans who’ve been awaiting this fourth installment in the Kelvin timeline and have been growing increasingly frustrated over the lack of forward momentum. But will those fans be enough to pull in more than $343 million at the box office as Star Trek: Beyond did?

If the movie releases in December of next year, the actual date, which so far is listed as December 22, according to Moviefone, will play a part in its success or failure.  With it being that close to the holidays, the film runs the risk of viewers not showing up at the box office. On the other hand, some may look forward to a quick break from the holiday madness.

What do you think? Is Star Trek 4 destined to fail?