Each week that goes by it seemingly becomes less likely that we'll see a fourth film in the Kelvin timeline of films. Starting in 2009, Chris Pine, Zachary Quinto, and Zoe Saldana teamed up with a host of other dynamic talents to help create a riveting take on Star Trek. While some aspects have not aged well, namely those stupid lens flares, the film is still largely liked by the fandom.
Following installations (Into Darkness and Beyond) were less celebrated, but still had its supporters. The decreasing return on revenue for each film, however, caused the film franchise to go cold. With the rise of CBS All-Access and subsequently Paramount+, the focus went from making shorter films to longer-form series. The idea is that fans will stick around longer for a 12-part series than they would for a 90-minute film.
It more or less worked for many, but despite Star Trek being CBS's biggest franchise, it wasn't big enough to sustain the streaming service on its own. Now, the service is in danger of being sold off for parts, and the future of CBS and its streaming home remains up in the air when it comes to the new ownership that's set to take over.
It's partly the uncertainty of the streaming service, and partly the profitability that comes with it, that has led Paramount to constantly lease out the 10 classic Star Trek films that start with Star Trek The Motion Picture and end with Star Trek: Nemesis. It seems like every other month, those films are being removed from Paramount+ so that another streamer could lease those films in an attempt to court potential new subscribers.
Yet, each time it happens, those 10 films are the only ones that get moved, never Star Trek 2009, Into Darkness, or/and Beyond. So why not? Well, it could be that the film franchise is of vital importance to Paramount and they won't risk those films as they're constantly in development for a fourth.
It could also be due to the nature of Hollywood. Perhaps those three newest films are just not popular enough to warrant licensing them out. The price that Paramount is charging for them may be too high to warrant anyone trying to acquire their distribution rights, or it may be that the overall perception of those films is so poor compared to their older predecessors, that no service wants to even risk bringing them on.
If Paramount knows their streaming service is in trouble, and it is, wouldn't you do anything you could to turn a profit? That means liscensing out those films. Yet, if no one wants to take them on, then clearly there may be a demand issue for those films.
Which makes a fourth film all the more unlikely to happen.
There's something called a Q Rating (or Score), and it measures the likability and popularity of numerous entities from brands to celebraties and more. It's possible, not for sure, just possible, that the new Star Trek films have a low Q Rating. It's just a theory but it would explain why those three films never left the platform, despite the platform celebrities clear and obvious need for new revenue streams.
It would also explain why a fourth film isn't in the works currently, and why there's been no movement on it in years. If that's truly the case at hand and again, it's just a theory, then there would be no real reason to try and make a fourth film at this point. If Paramount knows that the new franchise is "tainted' for lack of a better word, then there's no reason to invest in a final film.
Now, this is merely a theory but it would explain why a struggling streaming service doesn't lend out those three films for a pretty payday.